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The History of the Future

I tend to
view things through the prism of history. I see events and can relate to how
those same things have happened in the past. We are so closely paralleling the
Roman Empire that I feel reviewing it is a good way to predict the future. When
asked how I view TEOTWAWKI I think of the way the Roman Empire fell. No, I do
not see use having hoards of Visigoths raiding Washington DC, but rather the
way the world economy went to hell after Rome fell.
Because of
the way the empire was structured everything became interdependent on the
other. Once the Visigoths toppled the city of Rome there was no one to make
sure the water supplies arrived, the roads were kept up, or commerce kept
going. Anything that was of value was hidden or stolen. With the influence of
Rome gone all of Europe started to fall into smaller fiefdoms and Warchiefs and
Overlords controlled large areas and would swear their allegiance to a king so
that they could keep their control. The Overlord took from the peasant farmers,
and the king took from the Overlords.
I suspect
that something similar to that will happen. Call them Gangs, Militias, private
armies, or what have you, whole sections of a state will be controlled by
powerful lords that will take what they want as a “tax”.
Without gas
to power cars and trucks we will start to have small mills and hamlets return
to the countryside. A farmer in Eaton County will likely not have to leave the
county to sell his wares. Rivers will provide the main travel arteries for
outside markets. Study how Michigan, and most of the Midwest, grew and then
play it backwards. That is what I see coming in the future.
How far
ahead, Quein Sabe? Within my lifetime, possible, my son’s lifetime probable, my
grandkids lifetime, most assuredly.
Both of my
grandfathers had self-sufficient farms. When the depression hit both were able
to carry on a fairly normal life. In fact, during the depression both
grandparents added holding to their farms. My Dad’s father came out of the
depression with four paid off farms, one for each of his kids. I still live on
the farm my Dad inherited.
I believe
the salvation for families will be returning to the old agrarian economy of the
19th century. Using guidelines like Kains’ Five Acres and
Independence and the Robinson’s Have More Plan you can set yourself up for that
type of lifestyle with around five acres.
It will not
be easy, it will be hard work. You will need the whole family committed to
having it working so that you can survive the first years of the shock to the
system.
Am I ready
yet? Hell no. I have a long way to go and I have been working on it since the
1970s. Will I give up? Hell no. I keep plugging away at it day after day. As I
get older I worry my wife and I will not be able to do what we need to if
something does happen. Of course I also feel that whatever happens will not be
an overnight event where we wake up one morning and it is the lead story for
that news cycle. Our decline will come slowly for most of it with a few rapid
drop off cliffs along the way.
Then again,
nothing could change much over the next hundred years. All the preps and
supplies will be just so much junk for the family to deal with after grandpa
passes away. Why in the hell did he have all those bug out bags and ammo?
Prepping should be like insurance, pray you never have to use it but be
thankful you have it just in case.
Anyway, that
is what drives me and my long term plans revolve around that. Make the farm
more sustainable and set aside items that might be useful toward that
eventuality. However that is not my only thoughts and action for my future. My
wife and I still work every day and invest in our retirement accounts and plan
vacations. We still have our current day to day lives to live.
Regardless
of why you prepare or what you are preparing for it is wise to have an end goal
in mind and head for that. I use the prism of history for my lens. It may be
the only way to see the history of the future.
Wolverine
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My Reply to Jim

The other day I got a note from a friend of mine
asking me about saving copper cents for the future. He also asked about buying
more gold and silver to hold. Jim moved to the south a decade or so back but we
still talk via e-mail nearly every other day or so. I am sure you can infer his
questions by my answers.

My Reply to Jim

I am going
to try and answer your questions. It is not easy since so many things are
interconnected. The short answer is yes, gold and silver are better to hold
than paper money. I would say that the longer answer might be that it would be
better to hold things instead of gold and silver.
Remember
when we first started turning our collectibles into gold coins? We always used
to joke with people we were making gold soup for dinner. The reality is that we
cannot make gold soup and if you only hold gold and silver than you will
starve, for no amount of gold will buy food if everyone is starving. Any gold
and silver should be a way to preserve your family wealth for the next few
generations and not a plan to buy food after TSHTF.
Several
months or a year’s supply of food, safe drinking water or the ability to make
some, seeds and equipment to grow more food and preserve it will be the first
line of defense. Make sure you can produce more than you need because you can
bet that some Overlord will make you pay “taxes” for his protection. I believe
that if we have something like an EMP or event that sends us economically
backward we will end up in a Dark Age type of situation. Guns and ammo may
replace swords and spears, but the theory will be the same. Small fiefdoms will
develop and any landowner will be taxed with payment of food and material
instead of money. Gold and silver may work to pay those taxes but my guess is
once it is known you have gold and silver tucked away the Overlord will pay you
a visit and “taxes” will be set high just for you to live. I hope I am wrong,
but history tends to put my guess in the probably category.
As for your
question about saving the copper coins, that is anybody’s guess. You know the
law, Gresham’s Law I think it is, that states good money is driven out by bad
money and you saw how quickly silver disappeared from circulation. Hell Jim, we
met fighting over a silver dime!
You also
know that you can take a metal detector out and find a bucks worth of pennies
almost any day of the week. I remember us talking about the fact that someday
finding wheat cents would be as scarce as the Indianhead cents we hunted. I
guess because we dug so many copper cents I am not that concerned about making
sure I save bags of them. I might very look back on this and wish I had later,
but for now, no I am not saving copper cents.
Yes,
watching Doomsday Preppers is a good yardstick to judge your preps by, but do
not think that because you do not have a swimming pool full of fish or an
underground bunker that you are screwed. No two preppers look at things the
same way every time. Your preps for the hurricane season are way different from
my preps for getting a blizzard and snowed in for a few days. Some things are
similar like our need for a generator and easy to prepare food, but what and
how are totally different. (I for one do not have any boiled peanuts saved!) I
feel you have way too little ammo for your guns while you think I have too
much. Only time will see which of us is correct in our assessments.
I could make
a long list of stuff I wish I had here at the farm right now. Someday I will
add some of it to my supplies, but I will never have it all. I asked the
question a few posts back about trading a few gold coins for a tractor I would
like. Right now my answer would be no, but maybe having that tractor might be
better than gold coins if an Overlord wants my stash so I can stay alive. It
all comes down to making the best possible choice at the time with the
information you have available. Good luck making your choices.
Wolverine
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Doomsday Preppers, the 3% Solution

I, like many
of you, watched the start of the new season of Doomsday Preppers. One thing
struck me after watching the two hours’ worth of shows, the low odds that the
“experts” felt the preppers were preparing for. Hyper inflation, EMP, Madrid
fault earthquake, California earthquake, riots, terrorism, and all the others
reasons that folks prepare were listed rather low as a probability.
Ok, I
understand that some things are well within the realm of possibility, but low
in the realm of probability. Just because something can happen doesn’t mean it
will happen. Elizabeth Shue could leave her husband and become my mistress, but
really is that ain’t gonna happen. Possible but not probably.
I am going
to pick a number out of the air to use as an example. My number may be close or
way off, but for this effort we will use it anyway. Let us say that the chance
of any event happening is only 3%. Earthquake,
3%, terrorist attack, 3%, hyper inflation, 3%, and so on. That is a low number
yet still within the possible range. Now, make a list of all the things that
can happen. Add EMP, riots, peak oil, drought, global warming, super volcano,
and all the rest of the things we have ever thought about. To my line of
thinking we should now add all of those 3%’s together and we get a fairly high
odd of SOMETHING happening. It doesn’t have to be something far-fetched like a
Lake Michigan Tsunami wiping out western Michigan. (Probably a lower number
than 3% chance.) All we have to do is realize that something can happen.
Ten,
fifteen, maybe twenty different things are mentioned as reasons for prepping.
If you add that 3% to each one it doesn’t take long to get to a 30%, 40% or 60%
chance that something can happen. Those are not great odds. Even if my 3%
number is off we can still be looking at a fifty-fifty change or even one in
four chance of something bad happening.
If I were
telling Nat Geo my reasons for prepping it would not be one thing alone. I have
taken the shotgun approach for my prepping and plan for a multitude of possible
events. The fortunate thing for me is that most of the preps overlap and
preparing for an earthquake on the New Madrid fault is similar to prepping for
a Michigan snowstorm. As far as me saying anything to Nat Geo I can tell you
that ain’t gonna happen either. My wife and I talked about those people having
their preps filmed and names on TV. As far as I am concerned that would be the
same as a drug dealer wearing a sandwich board with an ad stating: Crack, Meth,
Weed, your choice, $20.
I am glad
that Doomsday Preppers is out there. It shows us that we are not alone. I am
not sure what the yardstick is that the “experts” use to evaluate the preps of
the shows profiles, but it does give us a yardstick to judge our own reps on. I
noticed several of the folks profiled said they did not reveal everything to
the show. I just fear that some OPSEC is not enough and those folks have put
themselves at risk. Do not make that mistake yourself.
Wolverine
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Living Off the Grid?

Being laid
up like I am I have had a chance to catch up on some reading. One book I
finally got to read is called Living off the Grid by Dave Black. The book put
me off the first time I tried to read it with a lot of touchy feely stuff about
saving the earth by using less energy. I got passed that this time around and
read with some interest the ideas Mr. Black put forth.
I also
started thinking long and hard about my feelings and thoughts about going off
grid. Now my wife will tell you that I would just as soon go to war with the
local Edison as not. It is a long story but they are a bunch of lying stealing
SOBs and if this were a hundred and fifty years ago I would tell them to come
armed the next time they see me for I plan to shoot ‘em on sight. But, this is
not the old west and I can’t do that so I just bite my tongue and hope they go
away.
Anyway, I
like so many of you, have dreamed of going off grid and getting rid of that
Edison bill. I can imagine telling them to come get their poles off my land; I
don’t need them anymore. In a real good day dream, I take the poles myself and
use them to build an elevated deer blind.
Mr. Black
laid out a lot to think about when it comes to going off grid. The type of
house, direction it faces, and material it is built of all make a difference in
your cost and ability to go off grid. Common sense says an earth shelter house
in a south facing hill will heat cheaper than an old farm house sitting in the
middle of a windy field.
My farm
house is of new construction. It is not one of those McMansion with seven
different roof lines and walls that jut in and out nor does it have huge
windows. I built my house with one roof line and square walls. The builder
fought me every step of the way, he didn’t think I should build what I wanted
but rather he wanted to build something that had “style and resale value.” I
could not make him understand this farm was in the third generation of
ownership and my boys already have plans to live here after they are done with
their military careers. That notwithstanding, I did several things right
according to Mr. Black and a bunch of stuff wrong.
I did right
when I built the outside walls with 2X6s for extra insulation. I also built it
with all brick to keep it both warmer in winter and cooler in summer. I also
insulated several inside walls so we could cocoon down to one large room if we
needed to.
I did some
major things wrong too. My house has only one window on the south side, and my
house runs North/South not East/West. I get no solar gain during the winter
from southern windows and I can’t put solar panels on the roof because it
doesn’t face the south with the biggest part of the roof.
The biggest
drawback to going off grid that I see is the cost. I only did a guesstament
calculation so I could be off by a lot, but this is what I got. To start, I
need solar panel and or wind turbines, or both, enough to cover the fact that
Michigan doesn’t have all that much sun generating days. I also need stands or
towers for same, storage batteries, invertors, and of course wiring. Based on
the amount of juice I currently use (no pun intended) I would need to spend in
the neighborhood of thirty thousand dollars.
Ok, for the
sake of argument let us say I have that much. (I don’t, trust me on that.) If I
spent it on going off grid I would save a little over one thousand dollars a
year in Edison bills. Not a great return in my book.
If I put it
in the bank I could make maybe 2% or around $600 which would cut my bill down
to about half.
Or, and here
is the plan I like, I could take that money and buy about ten acres of farm
land which goes for around three grand an acre right now around here. Even if I
shared the land and stayed a “gentleman” farmer that much land would produce
about two thousand dollars a year in crops payment. Not only could I knock off
my Edison bill but pay the taxes or about half of my year’s gas bill for
heating the place. It also gives me long term investment potential if TSHTF
with the ability to raise more food crops to sell locally.
Yeah, I
would like to be off grid if we go to TEOTWAWKI, but even then sooner or later
the solar cells will need replacing as will the batteries, so eventually I will
be just like everyone else.
Mr. Black
gave me a lot to think about in his book that is for sure. He also points out
that even if you are off grid the rest of the world is not. If we have a major
event that knocks out the power grid all the items that are produced with the
grid will be lost. How will we buy new solar panels or batteries?
Yes, going off grid would be good in some
cases, but not all. Before I would take that step I would sit down and run real
accurate numbers and make sure that it was a good investment to go off the
grid.
Wolverine
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The Price of Procrastination

Last summer
my work partner and I stopped at a Mexican specialty market that had a small
restaurant in the back. We ordered our lunch and walked around the store
checking out all the imported items. I spotted a bottle of coconut oil for
cooking. I have heard that the US no longer allows the sale of coconut oil
because of the high fat content, but that it is really some of the best oil for
certain items to be cooked in to give them good flavor. I decided to go back to
the store and buy a bottle for my supplies.
We got our
lunch and after it was set in front of us we realized this was no Taco Bell.
This was true south of the boarder fare. It was ok, but not to our taste for a
lot of repeat business. We left and I forgot to grab the oil.
Fast forward
six months. My partner retired from work and I am off with my shoulder surgery.
I had to see the doctor today and run several errands. One of those errands
took me by the Mexican store. I went in a looked all over for the oil. I could
not find it anywhere so I finally asked a clerk. Sorry, they no longer sell
coconut oil was the answer. I screwed around and missed my chance to buy
something I know I could use with my survival supplies.
How many
times have you done that? You see a box of cheap ammo, a good set of tools, or
maybe you just keep putting off filling those gas cans for a cheaper price? We
all find it easy to delay certain things and spending money is one thing that
is easy to delay. I could make a long list of things I have delayed over the
last few years.
If we hope
to have ourselves well prepared for those possible events coming on the horizon
we need to make sure we don’t keep putting off important item acquisitions.
Make that list of items you need and carry it with you in a small notebook. If
you spot an items and cannot buy it right then write down the store and
location so you do not forget where you can find it again.
Being prepared
is an everyday chore. It doesn’t have to be drudgery, it just takes small
amounts of action on your part to stay ahead of the curve and not pay the price
of procrastination.
Wolverine
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The Old Tractor

When I was
growing up on the farm my Dad worked in the factory and farmed the acreage. He
got laid off more than he worked in the factory. It seemed like he spent a lot
of time in the fields. Dad had bought a used 1939 Allis- Chalmers WC to work
with right after he and Mom married. It was about the perfect size for our
acreage.
The tractor
pulled our two bottom plow, set of disc, our drag, had a set of cultivators
that mounted to the tractor, a belt drive wheel that ran a large circular saw
and the neatest little air compressor that mounted near the hitch for blowing
up tires and such. Dad could do about anything with that tractor. He pulled
stumps and brush, hauled wagon loads of stuff around and would borrow Uncle
Bill’s combine to harvest crops. Growing up my sister and I always figured Dad
was a super hero and his super power was common sense. He had that practical
farmers approach to solving problems.
After Dad
got the millwrights job in the city and work became steady he stopped farming.
I wasn’t smart enough or ambitious enough to take over and farm so we shared
the land out. Later on Toolman and I tore apart most of the equipment and sold
it for scarp. The old tractor got sold at auction after the folks died and that
was the end of the farming for us. We still rent the land out and I became a
“gentleman” farmer.
I wish I
had kept all of it. That ’39 tractor would work even after an EMP. The
equipment would let me farm the place by myself after TEOTWAWKI and let me haul
wood up to the house and cut it with that saw. We might have to harvest by hand
and toss the corn into the wagon, but we could harvest none the less.
I have been
seeing some shows on RFD TV about old tractors and it sure makes me wish I had
been smart enough to farm this place has a kid and kept the equipment instead
of selling it. Talk about 20/20 hindsight, I sure can see clearly now.
Carhart
Warrior has a nice tractor and will help me out any time I need to use one, so
it isn’t that critical right now that I acquire a tractor, but I can see how
having an older model tractor with some minimal equipment sure would be handy
for any prepper with enough land to justify owning one.
Would I
trade a couple of $20 gold pieces for one right now? No, but see me after the
balloon goes up and that might change. Until then I will use my garden tractor
for small chores around here and use other means to harvest wood, till the
garden, and do my chores. If I ever have opportunity and preparedness come
together I might pick up an old tractor. If any of you have any experiences
with them to share feel free to drop me a comment.
Wolverine
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An Outrageous Charge


Last summer I stopped at a church rummage sale
and found a one man cross cut saw for sale there. They wanted ten dollars for
it which I thought was a great deal, a new saw like that would cost over $175.
The saw I bought had a broken D handle, but I figured I could make a new one or
trade it off with another handle from a saw I had.
The other
night I was going through a couple of back issues of Countryside magazine when
I spotted an ad for a company called Crosscut Saw Co. out of Seneca, New York.
I checked out the website and lo and behold I found they had D handles for
sale. The cost was $18.50, almost twice what I paid for the saw, but even at
that I figured it was a good price. I also found they had a manual on their
website on the use and sharpening of crosscut saws. The manual was only $4, so
for $22.50 I could get my saw fixed and sharpen it. I really like the idea of
having a saw I can use that will make far less noise than the chain saws I
have.
I printed
out the order form and filled out the top part and then went to the bottom and
filled in the shipping cost part. I could not believe what I was reading. The
cost to ship my two items from New York to Michigan was going to be $24, more
than the cost of the items.
I triple
checked everything and sure enough, that is the cost. I even thought about just
ordering the manual but the $4 manual would cost just under $10 to ship. Not
only no but No #^@(& Way!
I went on
line and found several sites that explain how to set and sharpen a crosscut
saw. I am not sure the cost per page of printing out a dozen or so pages, but I
will bet it is a hell of a lot less than the $13.50 it would cost to order the
manual alone. My Survival Bible just got thicker with more information I want
to have in case we go grid down and I cannot look something up on-line.
Seriously
folks, how can anyone send that kind of money for items like that? I ship large
boxes to both my sons in the service and they do not cost that much. I would
order the manual for say an extra two bucks for US mail cost and that would
more than cover it. The handle in a puffy envelope wouldn’t be more than three
or four dollars postage. Screw Crosscut Saw Co.! I will make my own handle. I
will find another way to learn to sharpen my saw. I will save myself fifty
bucks too.
Wolverine
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Eat Like a Wild Animal

I mentioned last post about Dick Proennke and his living in Alaska for most of his later
life. Like so many folks that spend time in nature he made a lot of
observations. I found the following quote most interesting.

“…this business of fishing can turn serious pretty quick when a man is hungry.
I have learned something from the big game animals. Their food is pretty much the
same day to day and I don’t vary my fare too much either.
Food is fuel and the best fuel I have found is oatmeal, beans, and fresh fish, and a
caribou or porcupine stew once in a while. I just season simple food with hunger and I have never felt better in my life.”

While he has a vast area to hunt and fish in that no other human hunts and fishes he
makes a good point about survival eating. Based on what he talks about we could
store a large amount of oatmeal and beans and have most of the meals he talks
about. Imagine not having to store seventeen different five gallons buckets of
food to get by on when hunger will make the two different flavors taste mighty
fine. Who needs freeze dried cobbler and potato flakes? Sounds good doesn’t it?
One minor problem. If you watch the two movies you will see him prepare numerous meals.
Shortly after he makes that observation in the second film he shows his meal,
flap jacks and blueberries with some kind of syrup. He plants a garden with
onions, carrots, and potatoes. Now I realize those are the types of veggies you
would put in a stew, but while he says simple fare he has more than just
simple. He also talked about bush pilots visiting and dropping off supplies and
cookies along with letters. Several times he shows making his sour dough
biscuits too.
Reality seems to be that we do need a bit more than just the basics for a well and
nutritious life. Add to that the rigors of a wilderness lifestyle and maybe
those seventeen different buckets of food are just the ticket.
While it sound good to run into the woods if
the balloon goes up the reality is that you need more that you can carry unless
you truly plan to eat like a wild animal.
Wolverine
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Personal note. I am able to use my arm and write on
the computer a lot earlier than I figured I would be able to. I still will have
a lot of re-hab to do before I can return to normal activities, but I already
feel I am on the road to recovery

Individual or Team Work?

My son called
and told me about the second part of a movie that was going to be on so I taped
it. I got a chance to watch Alone in the Wilderness Part Two while I am home recovering.
If you are not familiar with the Alone in the Wilderness movies, they are
documentaries about Richard Proennke (1911-2003). In the late 1960s Dick
Proennke moved to an area called Twin Lakes in Alaska and started living as
many of us have dreamed of doing. He built his own 11X14 log cabin and a cache
house and lived on his own for nearly 30 years.
Dick wrote
and filmed his daily life in Alaska. He hunted meat, raised a garden, cut
firewood, made nearly everything he used in and around his cabin, and was very
self-sufficient. Unlike Henry David Thoreau, Proennke lived a very deliberate
life for many years. For any preppers that feel retreating to the woods and
living there is something they want to do I suggest that you watch the two
movies and read his book. There are a lot of good things he can teach us.
In the second movie Proennke makes the
following observation:
“I don’t think a man knows what he
actually can do until he is challenged. I do

think man has missed the deep feeling of satisfaction if he has never
created something

or at least completed something with his own two hands.
We have grown accustomed to working
on pieces and parts of things instead of taking

things to completion. The emphasis seems to be on team work.
Now I realize that man working together
can perform miracles, such as sending a man to

walk on the surface of the moon, and there is definitely a need and a
place for teamwork. I

would be the last to argue that point.
We need each other, but never the
less in a jamb the best friend you have is yourself.”
What I read
into that is that while Mutual Aid Groups and a team for support is ok, you
need to make sure that you can stand on your own as well. That is why acquiring
so many different skills is emphasized on so many of the blogs. How many times
have you seen the quote: “A human being should be able to change
a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building,
write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying,
take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new
problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight
efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.” — Robert A.
Heinlein. There is something to that.
Wolverine
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More Odds and Ends
My boss asked me to attend a Red Cross seminar for him the other day. He knew I would get more out of it than he would and it was a good excuse for him not to go to another meeting. Since I like that kind of stuff I jumped on the chance and learned a few things I want to share with you.
The seminar was meant to show employers the services the Red Cross offers, for a fee, to help them keep their employees trained. The main training that the RC offers in the first aid and CPR certification. Many organizations like my employer are mandated by the state to have certain classifications and percentage of employees trained. The RC not only offers the training but also makes a clearing house for record keeping for those folks.
According to the RC for every dollar that is spent on training and preparedness the return is between $4-$6. First Aid and/or CPR given to someone within the first few minutes of need can increase their chances of survival by up to 40%. They state that first responders are an average of 15 minutes from arriving on the scene. For those of use that live in the hinter boonies the VFD is even a longer response time.
One interesting thing I learned is that you can take refresher courses on line to keep your skills fresh. You still need to get re-certified every two years but the on line skills lab will help keep you sharp between sessions. The Red Cross offers a number of classes that might be of interest and useful to preppers. They might be a good resource for you to check out.
My wife and I cleared out a bunch of the deposit bottles and cans we had in the garage. We came up with over thirty dollars from them. I also cleared out the newspaper for recycling and loaded up some trash to dump off at work. We want to get the junk out and have more room to move around in there. Heavy winter coats and the shovels for clearing snow always seem to make it tighter during the winter.
Toolman is clearing out his garage for a different reason. He e-mailed me the other day to tell me he found the wrench he couldn’t find a month or so back when he borrowed mine. I have the same problem. I borrowed a book from him once and it took me over three years to find it. It got put in a box for storage and moved to the basement. One thing I find is that my lack of organization cost me valuable time and money when I can not find something I know I have. I am always trying to improve on it.
One of my Labs is always trying to catch any of the critters that hang around the farm. He will spot one from the deck door and whine to be let out. He howls enough to scare the bejeezus out of anyone in the township and makes a mad dash for the critter. The critter runs away long before he can get to them. Well, up until today. He spotted a rabbit out by the field. I let him out and the rabbit sat for minute until it realized the dog was bee-lining for it. The rabbit went to hop off and it couldn’t move. The poor thing’s legs slipped on the ice and it fell over and rolled. It was still trying to stand up when the dog slid to a stop over it.
I have always told the dog that I didn’t know why he chased those animals; he wouldn’t know what to do if he caught one. Well, I was right. He stood over the rabbit and just sniffed it. He looked back at the house and wagged his tail and then nudged the rabbit off the ice and watched it hop away. My wife was terrified the dog was going to kill the “bunny” and dashed out to stop the carnage. Nothing to stop. The dog finally caught something and proved to me he has no idea what to do with something he caught. I laughed for a long while watching everything unfold.
I will not be posting until after the first of the year. I am getting surgery on my shoulder to repair a rotator cuff that has been bothering me for a long while. I am not even sure how it happened but suspect it wasn’t one event but rather the cumulative effect of my years yanking on wrenches and moving heavy items. Look for me to return sometime in January or February with weekly postings.
Wolverine
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Now More Than Ever
Have you seen any of the articles on the fact that you can be a terrorist if you have over seven days food supply stored? Coupled that will weapons, ammunition, and fuels and you could well be on the inside looking out.
Now, I must say I really question that. First of all, think about all the non-prepping people you know. How many of those folks have a freezer full of food. Surely that would more than seven day’s worth. How about the people that get paid only once or twice a month? When they shop they usually buy for the time frame between paychecks. They will have more than seven days food supply on hand. Any Cowboy Action shooter will have a nice arsenal and supply of ammo. I am sure you get my point; just about anyone can fall in that category.
Now, IF the rumor about that is correct just how in the hell can it be enforced without having half the population locked up? I suspect that there is more to this then we now know.
Look, how many times have you read about some poor guy that got in trouble and police raided his home and found a large number of guns and “thousands of rounds of ammunition.” The raid had nothing to do with guns and ammo but the guy is crucified for having them. Go out and buy a couple bricks of .22s and you too will have the same thousands of rounds of ammo headline. Toolman and I used to shoot up between five hundred and a thousand rounds on a Saturday afternoon. Needless to say in order to do that we need to have that much ammo on hand.
Prepping is hard enough without people going off half cocked about something they “heard”. We can all make a long list of stuff we have heard over the years that we can not verify. I for one would love to get my hands on that 100 mile per gallon carburetor I have “heard” about since the late 1960s.
I refuse to let them scare me into not prepping. I am not a terrorist. I spent the better part of fourteen years wearing a uniform and training to protect my fellow citizen and my country. My supply of food, guns, ammo, and fuel does not make me a terrorist, my intent to harm does, and I do not have any intention of causing harm unless I am defending myself or my family. As an old friend of mine used to say, “Don’t let the bastards get you down!” Stay positive and keep prepping, now more than ever.
Wolverine
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Detours Ahead

Remember a couple months ago when I told about the note from Vince asking about bugging out of the city? I want to re-visit the bug out theme for a minute. Recent events have made bug out plans something you should review.

If you live near Southeast Michigan you have probably heard about the flooding on the River Raisin. This is one of the wettest years in history and the water levels all over are up. With the rain that got dumped on us last week the river is swollen over its banks and traffic has been closed down on two bridges over it. Michigan routes 223 in Blissfield and M-50 in Dundee were closed at the River Raisin bridges. That is two major routes away from large cities.

I grew up in that area so I know several back road routes that would get me out of the area. Someone that is not from the area will have to rely on the posted detours to travel out of the area. What type of bottleneck and hazards can you see there?

Bridges are a choke point in travel, plain and simple. If you have any on your bug out route you may want to take the time now to figure out ways to avoid the population centers and most used routes. While you are doing that you need to make sure that you have the extra fuel you will need to travel the extra distances. If I had wanted to go into Dundee I would have had to travel thirty miles extra, one way, to do so. Most of that would have been over rough country roads too.

I know this sounds redundant, but being prepared means being in a constant state of preparedness. You have to constantly re-evaluate your preps, your emergency plans, your stock of supplies, and generally keep your preparedness at the forefront of your thoughts.

One time my oldest son and I, on a whim, took a farm lane across country for a few miles. We stayed off the main road and traveled dirt lanes across a couple of farms just to see if we could. Probably not the smartest thing we ever did, but it was a real learning experience. We wouldn’t do it again except in an emergency. However, we now know what to expect if we do and some of the hazards that it could evolve.

On a different topic, my youngest son and I were talking the other day and he informed me that one of the guys he went to college with is now starting to get involved with prepping. I want to take a minute to say welcome Jonathan glad to have you aboard. Next time you come to the farm to shoot we can talk more about prepping.

Finally, this is coming to the end of the year. You will be reflecting back on what went well, went poorly, and on what you need to do in the future. Always be encouraged that as long as you are prepping you are ahead of the game. It is the poor sheeple that do not think anything bad will happen that are the ones I worry for. I have no doubt that while there may be holes in our preps that when the S hits the F we will find each other and shore up our holes and get through what is coming. Just keep doing what your doing and we will make it, even with detours ahead.

Wolverine
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It Is Up to You

I finally watched a couple of shows I had taped a while back. Both shows were from the National Geographic channel. One show was called Electronic Armageddon. It was a look at what might happen if an EMP bomb went off over America.
I must admit I was surprised at the depth the show went into. I frankly never considered that the EMP would shut down factories and processing plants. Food and fuel production would cease and there would be months if not years before supplies could again reach the population. It sure did make few months of food storage look pitifully inadequate.
The other show I watched was called Aftermath: The World without Oil. It looked at what we had in store if the world runs out of oil and we can no longer make fuel, plastics, and all the vital items that petroleum products allow us to produce.
Both shows paint a bleak picture of course. Our whole lifestyle will end as we know it. Both shows hinted that we would have to revert back to an “older” type of lifestyle where things were done much more locally. Fruit from California and Chile will be a thing of the past. Fresh seafood from the Eastern Seaboard will be but a memory. Even if they can find there way here the cost will be prohibitive.
One thing that frosted my cookies was the fact that several key parts that will be needed to bring us back up to speed after these events are no long produced in this country. Key electrical gear comes from overseas. If the world loses juice then how will we get those parts over here?
We have politicians arguing whether we should cut spending or raise taxes. Neither of those parties seems to have our best interest at heart. Why would you argue to raise taxes and tell me you are thinking of me? Leave me my money and that will help me. If you in Washington and Lansing really want me to believe you have my best interest at heart why don’t you figure out a way to protect the gird, find ways to reduce oil use or increase our own production, and help me keep more of my money.
They say that there is a stretch of road up near Detroit that was put in during the 1930s and they have never touched it since. When the built it they over engineered it and because of that they have not had to resurface it or do anything to it. If they had done that to all our roads how much money would we have saved over the last thirty years? Imagine driving all over Michigan, or any state, and not having construction zones and slow downs. That folks would have our best interest at heart!
As preppers we look ahead and see any number of assaults on our lifestyle. It could be an EMP. Loss of oil, hyper inflation, or simply losing our jobs. We are better prepared than a lot of our peers and could really be ahead of the game if those clowns in the capitols would actually put themselves last and represent the people as they claimed they would. Keep prepping folks because it sure looks like it is up to you.
Wolverine

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Friendly Bandits

Most of us that write for the preparedness blogs touch on the same subjects over a period of time. We extol the virtues of having water, food, fuel, and defensive measures. You can not have too much in storage. You can not predict how long an event might last, how many folks will show up looking for support, or if you will even be able to reach your supplies. A flood or a fire can wipe out everything you have worked years for also. I recently discovered another way I was losing supplies; I had a case of friendly bandits.
The first time I noticed I had been raided is when I went out to the barn to fill the tractor so I could mow the lawn. I should probably remind you that I store my emergency gas supplies in cans in the barn. The cans range from 6 gallons to one gallon. I date each can when I fill them and I use them up from oldest first. They get cycled through in about every two years. Once emptied a can is placed on the floor with the date tape removed so I can fill them when prices dip. Since we had had a price dip a while back all the cans were filled and ready, or so I thought.
I grabbed the oldest five gallon can off the shelf and it was empty. Oh crap I thought, I had a leaky can. I grabbed the next oldest can and it was empty too! Before I was done I had four empty cans. I was down twenty gallons of gas and prices have just jumped. I was pissed.
While I mowed the lawn I kept going over it in my mind and decided that all the cans didn’t leak. I asked the family and my oldest son confessed that he had a bad case of the “shorts” and filled his car with the oldest gas. I didn’t care that he used the gas. I use some too when I have the shorts. What bothered me was that he didn’t tell me so I could refill them when prices were low. It also left me with a false sense that I have more stored fuel than I really did.
When we moved back to the farm I put a shelf in the basement for paper products. I loaded the thing with paper towels, paper plates, napkins, and some toilet paper. When loading the paper towel rolls I noticed that the price on the rolls jumped ten cents at a time and I started at 49 cents a roll and ended at .99. It reminded me that if you buy a lot of bulk early on you save a lot of money long term.
A few weeks ago I saw my wife had bought some paper towels. It made me realize that I had not seen her buy any before. I checked the basement and all the paper towels were gone. Over the last few years my wife used up all the stored supplies and was just now buying a few at a time. Once again what I thought was a nice inventory of a much needed supply was not at all there.
It has always been difficult to get my wife to see that she needs to keep supplies up. She figures we are saving a ton of money using up stuff we already have. We don’t fight tooth and nail over prepping, but she doesn’t see the same future that I do. I will have to be the one that goes out someday and buys a large number of towels and puts them someplace where I can get them when the emergency happens.
Over the last year I have used up one of my cans of Coleman fuel and not replaced it. I mentioned before that my kerosene has been used up over the last few deer seasons and not replaced too. Even I am guilty of using supplies and not replacing them.
While you may have really good preparedness and solid plans in place, make sure that you keep a finger on the pulse of your supplies or like me; you may find you have lost some things to friendly bandits.
Wolverine
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Packratting

I am a packrat. My wife has informed me of this fact on a regular basis over the last thirty years. Still, I like the fact I can go out to the barn and look up some old stuff from years gone by and make sure my memory is correct. I also enjoy stumbling across a box of old magazines and re-reading some of the stories. I recently found a pile of True magazines from the late 1960s. There was a long article about Euell Gibbons in it and how he hunts wild food. I made a copy of the article and shared it with Tonto. Thirty year old info is still good today.

Toolman and I share a collection of the early Mother Earth News magazines. There are a lot of useful article in them about home made equipment and how to about raising your own crops and animals. A lot of this info might be needed if we go into a long term TEOTWAWKI situation. Toolman dropped them off the other day. He is cleaning out some stuff in the house and needed to move them here. They will go on the shelf in the barn with the old issues of Backwoodsman, Countryside, Backwoods Home, Backhome, and a few others. All of these magazines hold very useful information that might come in handy down the road. I like to store these old magazines because they are EMP proof. Also, I may not be able to remember all I need to on a subject or I might not even care about raising chickens right now but will if they become critical to survival. I can then go back and read up on them.

If you read the blogs long enough you will see most of us post about books and reading martial every few months or so. That is because they are important to long term survival. I probably will not be around to help out the grandkids if we can keep from sliding over the edge for another decade. However, the supply of books and magazines I have left behind just may help insure my family’s survivability multi-generationally. If all that takes is for me to be a packrat, so be it.

Wolverine

Spending a Saturday Prepping, Sort of

Toolman, Tonto, and I escaped responsibilities Saturday and we loaded up and went to a pair of gunshows, a Fiber show and did some shopping. It was the first time we have all been together in a while. It was too bad E couldn’t join us.

We hit the first gun show and what we discovered was prices where up again. One example I can give is this. My Dad’s deer rifle was a Winchester ’94 in .32 Winchester Special. It is now the gun my son uses for deer hunting. It is not that common a caliber and when ever I see some at a cheap price I buy it. I picked up a couple of boxes for $15 three years ago and Two years ago I found it for $18 a box. This gun show I saw it from $22 to $28 and a couple older boxes were marked higher for their “collector value”.

Tonto wanted to pick up some extra magazines for one of his sidearm’s and the only one he found the guy wasn’t $30 for it and could not guarantee that it would work in Tonto’s model. Toolman could not find the items on his list at any price. I saw some very rough, rusted, ammo cans fro $5 each, the kind we used to pay a buck for. I did find a half box of .30-30 rounds for $3 which I thought was ok.

One booth had a lot of books that would be of interest to anyone building a survival library. Three different Country Wisdom volumes, several books on raising livestock and some on butchering said livestock. Another booth had a nice array of medical supplies that might be good to have for TEOTWAWKI. Gunshows still are great places for finding gear; just realize that prices are going up all the time.

We stopped at Dunham’s to look for a couple items. I found a box of .22s on sale for $17. That is the cheapest I have seen on a brick of .22s in a long while so I bought one. I noticed one lone box of M-1 carbine ammo and I picked it up. I about fell over looking at the price. I showed Tonto and his jaw dropped. Toolman came over and had the same jaw dropping reaction. Forty-five dollars a box!

Next door to the second gun show was a “Fiber Show”. We had no idea what a fiber show was and decided to walk over and check it our. Toolman opted to stay in the van and eat a polish dog so Tonto and I walked over. There was no charge to walk through so we did. There were a lot of animals there, each which produced a nice fur for yarn. Tonto explained that his girlfriend has a sweater and pair of socks made from alpaca yarn and she just loves it. He was half looking for another pair of socks for her. The highlight of the show for us was the camel they had on display. Tonto and I got to pet the camel. I asked the guy that was controlling the thing if he ever rode the camel. He said he rode it a lot. I asked him if that made him a camel jockey. Some woman standing there whirled around and gave me a dirty look, not appreciating my joke. Oh well, Tonto laughed.

We did find that there are a lot of different models of spinning wheels and saw the possibilities of spinning yarn and making clothes as a barter item especially after TEOTWAWKI. We didn’t spend enough time there to really get a clear picture of what the fiber show was about and probably need to look into it more

After the gun shows and fiber show we returned to the farm and Toolman brought out his new Ruger LRC in .357. He had an accident at work and with his hand in a cast he could not cock the slide on his semi-auto so he got the little Ruger to carry. We all managed to punch some holes in the target with it and Tonto said that the stainless model had much better control than the aluminum model he shoot a couple weeks ago at the range.

It was nice for all of us to get together again even if it was only for a short time spending a Saturday prepping, sort of.

Wolverine

Alternate Plans for Staying Warm

I will admit that over the last month or so I have not had preparedness at the forefront of my mind. I was enjoying the fall days and busying myself with small things like trapping animals for my mother-in-law and reviewing old articles on prepping. Last Sunday my wife and I sat watching the news and saw the tons of snow that was dumped on New England and my wife turned to me and stated she sure was glad that didn’t happen here. It sort of jotted me that indeed it could happen here and I had not set up several of my back up plans for staying warm in a power outage.

I have written several times in the past about the PACE system for preparedness. I first heard it referred to as PACE over on Joe’s Viking Preparedness blog which for some sad reason he seems to have burned out on and no longer posts. Anyway, PACE is an acronym for Primary, Alternate, Contingent, and Emergency. It is a layers system of plans for any part of an operation. It was refined by Special Forces but has been around in many forms for years. Our family had the “One’s good, two’s better and Three’s is about right” plan for as long as I can remember.

A couple quick examples would be lighting, Primary, throw the switch, Alternate, propane lantern, Contingent, kerosene lantern, and Emergency, candles. For water you plan might run something like, draw from well, used stored bottle water, filter rain water, and boil any water you can find. I think that gives you the idea.

Since I live in Michigan and it gets a mite chilly from time to time I have in place a PACE system for heating. Now, this is not the plan I want to eventually have, but it is the one I have now. Like many of you, I dream of the day I can pick up a good woodburning stove that will heat and let me cook on it. Until that day arrives that is not an option and my plans need to reflect my reality.

My primary heat is my furnace which runs on propane. My wife and I have been fortunate enough to pre-pay for our propane the last few winters so we can count on it being full most of the time. If we lose power for a long term reason I have a generator I can hook up to the power and make sure the furnace works.

My alternate heat is still the propane, but what will happen is my wife, myself, and the dogs will cocoon down to the family room and heat it with the gas fireplace. It keeps that room warm and we can stay in there for most of the time we need to. Our kitchen is in the opposite corner of the fireplace and if it gets real cold in there we can turn the burners of the stove on and heat both corners making the room nice and toasty.

Years ago when we lived in the city my wife and I heated the house with kerosene. We found it kept the place nice and warm and since we bought kerosene as we used it the large heating bill from the gas company never showed up. We kept that heater and that is our Contingency plan for keeping warm. To be honest with you, right now my kerosene stores are way down and we would not be able to heat for a long period of time before we drop to our Emergency plan. We have not replaced the kerosene we used while deer hunting the last few years because I keep waiting for the price to come down. When we lived in the city K-1 kerosene was just under $2 a gallon. It is now double that and I keep hoping it will come down. Tonto and I have several places we check the price on and share the info. Now that I have my gas storage completed I hope to at least buy several more can full’s of K-1 for the future.

As an aside, several years ago I stopped at an Amish farm and asked the folks how much kerosene they used in a years time. The guy told me that they used about a hundred gallons for lighting and cooking. They use a kerosene stove during the summer for cooking on. They do not heat with kerosene so you can guess that you would need several hundred gallons stored away for heating and lighting.

Our gas fireplace can be converted to a wood burning fireplace with an hour’s work and a few tools. Once I fill the heater with the last gallon of kerosene I will be converting the fireplace over and we will then be heating with out Emergency plan.

As a guy I work with once told me, “It is easier to get warm than it is to get cool”. Staying warm in the dead of winter can be easier than cooling off in the ninety degree heat of summer. If you come into a room from the outside when it is well below freezing even a 50 degree room is warm.

I am sure that you have heard that the experts have all predicted that this will be a really bad winter with lots of cold and snow. If they are correct than now is the time to make sure you have some alternate plans for staying warm.

Wolverine

Spreading the Word about Prepping

I got a message from one of the Michigan readers the other day. He expressed a concern that many new preppers have mentioned. In essence what he asked was, how do you deal with people that think you are around the bend when you mention prepping to them?

Being a prepper draws a lot of raised eyebrows and comments to your face and even worse behind your back. I do not know if you have seen Momma Bear in the Mitten posted from time to time on the blogs, but she is family. When she first started prepping she was like an evangelist for prepping and now everyone in the family makes cracks about it. Since I started prepping back in the 1970's very few know I do so now. Look at prepping like selling Amway, you are either a believer or you run and hide from the idea of someone tiring to recruit you. You are not trying to get people to sell soap and make money but rather you are trying to get them to prep for dire times. It still breaks down to whether they are believers or not.

I had a guy from work come up to the farm one Saturday so he could try out his new pistol. I broached the subject of prepping to him and now all he does is go around work telling people he is coming to my farm if the world goes to hell. You have to be selective in who you talk to about prepping. By rights the guy should have been a good candidate for prepping based on all I know about him, but I sure missed the mark on him.
Sure, it might be best to keep your mouth shut and say nothing, but most of us want our friends and family to survive and be there. Another thing I have found is a lot of people are prepping but they do not think they are preppers. I have one cousin that has a back up generator, stored food, and a few other items to help out in an emergency, but she doesn’t think she preps. Prepping comes in many degrees, some of us running on high go ahead and others slightly above idle.

Do not let the sheeple get you down. Keep prepping because you know it is right to do. My family has been ready since the 70's and we still keep prepping even though so far we have not had TEOTWAWKI. It is like the guy falling off the skyscraper, as he passes each floor he says, so far so good. Sooner or later he will not have “good” anymore.

Wolverine

A Couple of Updates

The rabbit we rescued was not a good fit with our home. Every time one of us held the rabbit she would pee all over us. The dogs did not bother the rabbit other than they would smell her as she moved around the kitchen, but the dogs bothered the rabbit by being around at all. One of the cats looked at the rabbit as a nice lunch. My wife spent hours sitting on the floor petting the rabbit but the rabbit would shy away from her most of the time.

My wife mentioned the rabbit to her boss and he told her if we wanted to get rid of it he and his wife would love to have it for their 14 year old daughter. We discussed it and made the choice to make a gift of the rabbit to the girl. Today the rabbit is well cared for, and hops to the girl when she gets home from school. The boss told my wife that the rabbit shows affection toward the girl, has the run of the house and is a great fit for their family. Everyone is happy, so I guess it is win- win as they say.

The walnuts are gone. Carhart Warrior loaded them in the dump bucket of his tractor and drove them back to the woods where the squirrels are having a fall banquet. Now, fat squirrel I like a lot better than walnut so this could work out to be win-win also.

I trapped a second opossum at my Mother-in-Law’s and this one is “as big as a dog”. This one was re-located to a drainage ditch half way between the city and our farm. No, I did not dispatch this one; it was smart enough to get the hell out of the cage when I opened the door. However, I did e-mail Bill and told him we were having special hamburgers at half-time Saturday. (He is the one that found the critter at Mom’s.) He declined the invite for some reason.

My finally trapping adventure at my mother-in-law’s resulted in one fat raccoon. We left him go at a metro park. As soon as the cage was opened the coon was headed into the woods as fast as his legs would carry him. Now one of my wife’s co-workers is talking about maybe having me trap a skunk she saw in her yard. I will think on that.

Thank you to all that left a comment and let me know I was not alone out here. It helps a lot to know I have at least some support.

Wolverine