If you've landed on this blog by mistake, please follow this link:


Please update your bookmarks and the links on your sites.

Join our forum at:

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Doomsday Preppers, the 3% Solution

I, like many
of you, watched the start of the new season of Doomsday Preppers. One thing
struck me after watching the two hours’ worth of shows, the low odds that the
“experts” felt the preppers were preparing for. Hyper inflation, EMP, Madrid
fault earthquake, California earthquake, riots, terrorism, and all the others
reasons that folks prepare were listed rather low as a probability.
Ok, I
understand that some things are well within the realm of possibility, but low
in the realm of probability. Just because something can happen doesn’t mean it
will happen. Elizabeth Shue could leave her husband and become my mistress, but
really is that ain’t gonna happen. Possible but not probably.
I am going
to pick a number out of the air to use as an example. My number may be close or
way off, but for this effort we will use it anyway. Let us say that the chance
of any event happening is only 3%. Earthquake,
3%, terrorist attack, 3%, hyper inflation, 3%, and so on. That is a low number
yet still within the possible range. Now, make a list of all the things that
can happen. Add EMP, riots, peak oil, drought, global warming, super volcano,
and all the rest of the things we have ever thought about. To my line of
thinking we should now add all of those 3%’s together and we get a fairly high
odd of SOMETHING happening. It doesn’t have to be something far-fetched like a
Lake Michigan Tsunami wiping out western Michigan. (Probably a lower number
than 3% chance.) All we have to do is realize that something can happen.
fifteen, maybe twenty different things are mentioned as reasons for prepping.
If you add that 3% to each one it doesn’t take long to get to a 30%, 40% or 60%
chance that something can happen. Those are not great odds. Even if my 3%
number is off we can still be looking at a fifty-fifty change or even one in
four chance of something bad happening.
If I were
telling Nat Geo my reasons for prepping it would not be one thing alone. I have
taken the shotgun approach for my prepping and plan for a multitude of possible
events. The fortunate thing for me is that most of the preps overlap and
preparing for an earthquake on the New Madrid fault is similar to prepping for
a Michigan snowstorm. As far as me saying anything to Nat Geo I can tell you
that ain’t gonna happen either. My wife and I talked about those people having
their preps filmed and names on TV. As far as I am concerned that would be the
same as a drug dealer wearing a sandwich board with an ad stating: Crack, Meth,
Weed, your choice, $20.
I am glad
that Doomsday Preppers is out there. It shows us that we are not alone. I am
not sure what the yardstick is that the “experts” use to evaluate the preps of
the shows profiles, but it does give us a yardstick to judge our own reps on. I
noticed several of the folks profiled said they did not reveal everything to
the show. I just fear that some OPSEC is not enough and those folks have put
themselves at risk. Do not make that mistake yourself.
Join the APN Forum at www.AmericanPreppersNetwork.net
Visit the Michigan Forum at www.MichiganPreppersNetwork.net

No comments:

MichiganPreppersNetwork.com Est. Jan 17, 2009 All contributed articles owned and protected by their respective authors and protected by their copyright. Michigan Preppers Network is a trademark protected by American Preppers Network Inc. All rights reserved. No content or articles may be reproduced without explicit written permission.